Algeria 
Bahrain 
Egypt 
Iran 
Iraq 
Israel 
Jordan 
Kuwait 
Lebanon 
Libya 
Morocco 
Oman 
Palestine * 
Qatar 
Saudi Arabia 
Syria 
Tunisia 
United Arab Emirates 
Yemen EBRD Regional Economic Prospects
The report, entitled “Running dry”, highlights growing constraints on three areas: oil exports, water and global savings. Together, these pressures are exposing vulnerabilities in energy systems, food supply chains and financing conditions across the EBRD regions. As a result, inflation has stabilised at levels 2 percentage points above those observed before the Covid-19 pandemic. Growth in the southern and eastern Mediterranean picked up from 1.9 per cent in 2024 to 3.1 per cent in 2025 before output contracted by 0.6 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026. Growth is expected at -0.7 per cent in 2026. The regional averages are dominated by the sharp contraction in Iraq, where following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exports of oil through alternative routes amounted to less than a quarter of last year’s export capacity. Lebanon has also been in recession exacerbated by military escalation, which caused further damage to infrastructure. Growth is projected to rebound to 7.1 per cent in 2027 once shipment of oil from Iraq normalises. Excluding Iraq, growth in the region is expected to average 3.9 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027. Forecasts for Morocco and Tunisia have been revised up on strong agricultural output.
Countries covered:
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Algeria
-
Bahrain
-
Egypt
-
Iran
-
Iraq
-
Israel
-
Jordan
-
Kuwait
-
Lebanon
-
Libya
-
Morocco
-
Oman
-
Palestine *
-
Qatar
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Syria
-
Tunisia
-
United Arab Emirates
-
Yemen
